The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen even further until 2027 and could potentially become the most intense on record, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather conditions into the following year, as per the World Meteorological Organization’s announcement on Thursday.
During a news briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated, “If the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences we have monitored. It is essentially beyond the scale we have utilized over the past four decades.”
The UN weather agency indicated that their projections indicate close to a 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of assurance is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A powerful El Niño event can notably alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially triggering severe weather events such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked, “El Niño is expanding right before our eyes. Scientific evidence unequivocally shows that the planet is entering uncharted territory, and these uncharted waters are warming up.”
El Niño, a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds, naturally occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts about a year, leading to intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted tropical regions’ soft commodities, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO noted that El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year, with its effects extending into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures next year, according to Saulo.
Saulo highlighted that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of the upcoming conditions.
“We are dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian networks to provide the necessary climate insights and intelligence to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” she emphasized.