Amid the presence of American warships and an aircraft carrier near Venezuela’s coast, a former U.S. ambassador to the country suggests that the current buildup appears less aimed at counternarcotics efforts and more suggestive of preparations for a regime change, as per James Story, a former official during the initial Trump administration.
Story expressed his belief that the assembled resources are too potent for a mere counternarcotics mission and indicated an 80% likelihood of U.S. military operations within Venezuela or its territorial waters in the near future. He reasoned that failing to take additional steps after deploying what he termed as “exquisite assets” would complicate President Donald Trump’s ability to claim a political triumph.
The deployment features nearly a dozen U.S. warships alongside the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying strike group, recognized as one of the world’s largest and most advanced military vessels. The endeavor involves approximately 15,000 sailors and Marines, marking the most substantial U.S. military presence in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama that led to the removal of President Manuel Noriega.
While officially labeled a counternarcotics operation, Washington has conducted airstrikes on 22 vessels in the Caribbean, allegedly involved in drug trafficking, resulting in the deaths of at least 83 individuals. However, the U.S. has not publicly furnished evidence linking the boat occupants to drug smuggling, with the Colombian government asserting that some strikes targeted innocent fishermen.
In recent developments, the U.S. State Department announced the designation of the Cartel of the Suns, an alleged organization comprising top Venezuelan military and government figures, as a foreign terrorist group, with Maduro purportedly heading the group. The statement from the department dismissed Maduro and his associates as illegitimate representatives of Venezuela’s government.
Numerous countries, including the U.S. and Canada, refuse to recognize Maduro’s victory in the July 2024 presidential elections. The opposition claims to have secured a significant portion of the vote, and the State Department augmented the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, citing his alleged involvement in “narco-terrorism.”
Regarding potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, former Ambassador Story contemplates targeting clandestine airstrips used for drug transportation, illegal armed factions linked to drug trafficking, or top government officials, likening the strategy to the “Soleimani approach,” a reference to the late Iranian military commander killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020.
The legal justification for U.S. strikes within Venezuela would necessitate proving an imminent threat that demands executive action, possibly by framing narco-trafficking as a form of attack against the U.S. Despite Maduro’s warnings of prolonged conflict, he has also advocated for peace and questioned the American public’s stance on potential military interventions.