Artificial intelligence (AI) could revolutionize hurricane forecasting, making it more accurate and efficient. Peggy Savery, a resident of Port aux Basques, N.L., experienced the devastating impact of post-tropical storm Fiona in 2022 when her home was destroyed. Savery now lives farther from the ocean but remains vigilant when storms approach, recognizing the importance of preparedness.
Experts suggest that integrating AI into weather forecasting systems, such as those at the U.S. National Hurricane Center and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, will enhance hurricane monitoring capabilities. Meteorologist Jim Abraham, founder of the Canadian Hurricane Centre, envisions AI as the future of meteorology, offering more precise and cost-effective predictions.
Richard Turner, part of a team at Cambridge University, developed Aardvark Weather, an AI-driven weather prediction system. By analyzing decades of weather data, AI models can forecast future weather patterns with fewer resources compared to traditional methods. While AI excels in tracking the path of hurricanes, predicting storm intensity, like wind speeds, remains a challenge.
Despite AI’s rapid advancements, Turner emphasizes the importance of combining AI with traditional forecasting methods. The synergy between the two approaches is crucial for reliable and operational weather forecasting systems. As AI continues to evolve, ensuring its safety and reliability through rigorous testing and evaluation is essential.
However, the progress of AI development in weather forecasting faces potential setbacks due to budget cuts in U.S. climate organizations. Turner highlights the indispensable role of data provided by organizations like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for training AI systems. Despite challenges, the potential of AI in enhancing hurricane forecasting offers hope for better preparedness and mitigation strategies for communities vulnerable to severe weather events.