Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, as per data from Statistics Canada analyzed by researchers. Overall trade between the two countries increased by 3.6% year over year during this period. The rise in exports to China, totaling $21.74 billion, contributed to the total bilateral trade value of $66.6 billion in the first half of 2026.
The increase in trade was mainly driven by energy and minerals, which accounted for 58.4% of all Canadian exports to China. Energy exports, particularly crude oil and liquefied propane, saw a substantial 81.8% growth, while exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, rose by 29%.
The boost in trade between Canada and China comes amidst efforts by Canada to diversify its economy in light of strained relations with the U.S. The recent positive trend in trade is attributed to various factors, including warming diplomatic and economic ties between the two countries following years of tension, exemplified by the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline reaching 97% capacity in June facilitated increased access to Western Canadian crude oil by Asian markets. Additionally, disruptions in oil shipments due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran led to higher demand for Canadian oil, further bolstering exports.
The trade truce between Canada and China saw significant agreements, such as allowing Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff reductions on Canadian agricultural products. This deal has positively impacted various sectors, including agriculture, with farmers experiencing improved prices for their products.
While the trade deficit with China decreased by 25%, import numbers from China were down by 5.8% year over year. This decline was partially driven by a shift of certain manufacturing activities to other countries like Vietnam. Despite this, Canada continues to seek ways to fortify its trade relationships and diversify its export markets.
Looking ahead, there is optimism for further growth in trade with China and the Asia-Pacific region. Canada aims to increase exports to China by 50% by 2030, with the current positive trajectory indicating that this target may be surpassed. The full-year numbers are anticipated to provide a comprehensive picture of Canada’s trade performance with China for 2026.