A recent analysis has revealed that the decision by the government of Saskatchewan to renovate its coal-fired power plants could potentially reach a cost of $46.4 billion over the next 20 years. This amount surpasses the previously leaked internal SaskPower documents’ estimation of $26 billion over 25 years. Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to ascertain the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy of utilizing its coal-fired power plants as an interim solution before transitioning to nuclear power and constructing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research indicates that this plan would be more costly and environmentally damaging compared to retiring the coal plants and constructing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, which was the original provincial strategy before being altered in early 2025.
According to Dolter, implementing carbon pricing would further highlight the cost disparities. Without carbon pricing for heavy emitters, the expenditure of continuing with coal would amount to $30.2 billion over the next two decades. When factoring in carbon pricing, the total cost would rise to $46.4 billion, as calculated using the values outlined in Ottawa’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta.
Although Dolter emphasized the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s current course of action, he refrained from speculating on why the government opted for this path despite being aware of the potential costs. When questioned about Dolter’s findings, the provincial government issued a statement focusing on the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s growth. Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison reiterated the government’s commitment to an “all-of-the-above” strategy for meeting energy demands, emphasizing the utilization of Saskatchewan’s resources, including nuclear energy deployment.
The decision to revamp Saskatchewan’s coal-fired plants, made in early 2025 by Harrison, contrasts with the province’s previous trajectory toward a coal-free future. The government’s shift towards refurbishing the coal plants instead of adhering to clean electricity regulations is anticipated to yield cost savings, as per a document filed by SaskPower with the rate review panel. Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan highlighted the potential population impact of transitioning away from coal, expressing relief at the city’s renewed optimism following the government’s decision.
Saskatchewan’s divergent path from federal regulations to phase out coal-fired power stations by 2030 has raised concerns about legal and financial risks. Dolter warned that the province’s defiance of Canada’s clean electricity regulations, coal-fired regulations, and carbon pricing could lead to legal challenges, potentially resulting in wasted expenditures on plant refurbishments. The province’s stance on these regulations could place it in legal jeopardy, with Dolter cautioning against the scenario of investing in coal plants’ renovation only to face shutdown mandates due to legal disputes.