As negotiations between Washington, Ukraine, and Russia intensify and President Donald Trump remains hopeful about nearing a peace agreement, key disagreements persist between Kyiv and Moscow. The control of disputed regions in Eastern Ukraine and the issue of security guarantees are major points of contention.
Kyiv is insistent on robust security guarantees to deter any potential Russian aggression post-peace deal. Ukraine seeks binding security assurances, reflecting dissatisfaction with the non-binding Budapest Memorandum of 1994, which failed to prevent Russia’s actions in Crimea and Donbas.
While Ukraine aims for NATO membership, lacking consensus within the alliance has led Kyiv to seek U.S.-backed guarantees. Discussions include the possibility of security guarantees for Ukraine inspired by NATO’s Article 5, which states an attack on one member is an attack on all.
The leaked 28-point peace plan endorsed by Moscow and Washington suggests providing Ukraine with “reliable” security guarantees, involving the U.S. Several news outlets obtained a European counterproposal advocating for a U.S. security guarantee akin to Article 5.
The exact implications of the term “mirrors” in these proposals remain unclear, pending commitment from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow. Oleg Ignatov suggests a security agreement similar to those with South Korea and Japan may require congressional approval.
Furthermore, discussions around peacekeepers are complex, with allies like Canada considering troop deployments in Ukraine post-ceasefire. However, the presence of NATO troops in Eastern Ukraine faces strong opposition from Russia, potentially leading to alternative arrangements in neighboring countries.
In keeping the peace, U.S. involvement may focus on surveillance equipment and support from NATO territories, rather than deploying troops on Ukrainian soil. Russia’s stance on security guarantees remains firm, emphasizing no concessions on key objectives.
While significant challenges persist in negotiating territorial control, ongoing discussions mark the most substantial progress since Russia’s invasion. Shuttle diplomacy continues, with Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and envoy Steve Witkoff engaging in further talks in Ukraine and Moscow. Trump awaits a finalized deal before meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Putin.