A leaked draft reveals that the U.S. President’s strategy to end the conflict in Ukraine entails Russia gaining territory and imposing restrictions on Kyiv’s military capabilities. The proposed plan, a result of negotiations between Washington and Moscow, heavily favors Russia, the aggressor in the conflict that began nearly four years ago. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who has previously opposed calls for territorial concessions from Trump, is likely to find the proposal challenging to accept. European leaders are expected to criticize the U.S. peace initiative for potentially rewarding Russian President Putin for his belligerence, rather than holding him accountable.
Under the draft plan, Ukraine would be prohibited from joining NATO, and the alliance’s expansion would be halted, a significant win for Moscow, which perceives NATO as a threat. The proposal would grant Putin control over the entire eastern Donbas region, a gain on the battlefield that Russia has struggled to achieve. It would also require a reduction in Ukraine’s military personnel from around 880,000 to 600,000 soldiers.
Furthermore, the plan suggests the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russia and reinstating its membership in the Group of Eight (G8), comprising major global economies. Russia was excluded from the G8 in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea, an act internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.
The U.S. team developed the plan following discussions between U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Rustem Umerov, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy. Although Umerov reportedly accepted most of the plan after modifications, Zelenskyy’s stance remains unclear. U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll visited Kyiv and discussed the draft with Zelenskyy, who responded cautiously on social media without directly addressing the proposal’s specifics.
The proposed agreement includes provisions for Russia to commit to refraining from future attacks, with the White House viewing this as a concession. Additionally, $100 billion in frozen Russian assets would be allocated for Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, conceding territory to Russia is anticipated to face strong opposition in Ukraine and would violate the country’s constitution, a stance reiterated by Zelenskyy.
The draft envisions establishing a “Peace Council” overseen by Trump, drawing inspiration from his prior peace efforts in the Middle East. Any violation of the truce by either party would result in sanctions. U.S. Rep. Don Bacon criticized the emerging plan, likening it to the Munich Agreement of 1938, which is widely regarded as a precursor to World War II.
European diplomats demanded broader consultations as reports of the draft surfaced, emphasizing the importance of involving Ukraine and European stakeholders in the peace process. Concerns have been raised about the U.S. administration potentially sidelining European partners and Zelenskyy in its pursuit to end the conflict. Despite Trump’s historically accommodating stance toward Putin, recent sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector indicate a shift towards a more stringent approach.