The upcoming Canadian curling trials in Halifax mark a significant event leading up to the Winter Olympics. Top men’s and women’s teams in Canada will compete for the opportunity to represent the country in the four-player curling events in northern Italy this February. The mixed doubles entry was secured by Jocelyn Peterman and Brett Gallant last season, securing an Olympic spot with a sixth-place finish at the world championships.
The trials for both men and women will kick off this weekend in Halifax, following a round-robin format where teams will compete against each other once. The team with the best record will advance straight to the final, while the second- and third-placed teams will clash in a semifinal next Thursday to determine the finalist against the top seed.
In a departure from past trials, the finals will now be a best-of-three series instead of a single game, with the finals scheduled for the following Friday and Saturday, and any necessary rubber matches on Sunday.
The quest for the Canadian curling teams at the Olympics aims to restore the country’s standing in Olympic curling, as Canada has only earned one medal in the four-person events since the 2014 Games. Despite boasting talented skips like Brad Gushue, Jennifer Jones, Rachel Homan, and Kevin Koe, Canada’s performance has been below expectations, with mixed doubles also showing inconsistent results.
Shoreview Sports Analytics has analyzed the teams using the Bradley-Terry model to determine the most likely candidates to earn Olympic berths. The simulations predict potential outcomes for both the men’s and women’s trials.
In the women’s event, Rachel Homan’s team is a clear frontrunner, having dominated the global curling scene with consecutive world championships and an impressive winning streak against Canadian opponents. The statistical model highly favors Homan to win the trials, with other contenders like Kerri Einarson and Kaitlyn Lawes trailing far behind.
On the men’s side, Brad Jacobs and Matt Dunstone emerge as top contenders, with a more open field compared to the women’s event. Jacobs, a former Olympic gold medalist, and Dunstone, a consistent performer at the Brier, are expected to be in contention for the Olympic spot.
The Shoreview model predicts various potential outcomes for the men’s trials, offering a more unpredictable and thrilling competition compared to the women’s event. The men’s final is anticipated to be a closely contested affair, with a high likelihood of going to a decisive third game.